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Market Outlook, Evmos, Solana NFTs, Stabelcoin Yields
I wanted to first apologize for my absence and not publishing content consistently. My portfolio took a massive dip in December and I was spending most my free time positioning my portfolio for the relief bounce we witnessed in mid March. Unfortunately, following my positioning I was the victim of a hack. I contacted a security expert and he confirmed the cybercrime group Lazarus were the culprits. My moral was at an all time low for a weeks but I’m now ready to make my comeback.
My general view on the market is a year of sideways with a potential capitulation event. There’s too much economic and political uncertainty that could spill over into crypto. Since the bottom of March 2020 the crypto market has remained correlated with legacy 90% of the time. At some point this correlation will break but until it does we have to acknowledge the potential for another large draw down.
Despite blue chip stocks getting slaughtered BTC has maintained its current range. The real test is surviving a break down in the major legacy indices. This would be the single most bullish event in crypto. Momentum traders in both crypto and legacy markets love piling into strength.
Unlike 2017 capital is more sticky. Stablecoins and fat DeFi yield give investors compelling reasons to keep a portion of their net worth in crypto assets. In recent month yields in both CeFi/DeFi have receded. I suspect the main drivers for low yield include are the following:
lack of retail leveraging to chase big returns - borrowing against their crypto assets
Yield farming yields got crushed as token prices receded
Frequency of hacks have made investors more risk adverse
Also, the macro tailwinds encourage diversification. Anecdotally speaking most people I know have allocated 1-5% to crypto. In a capitulation event I anticipate investors will respond promptly and any meaningful dip will be absorbed. In other words I’m not anticipating a conventional crypto bear market that persists for years.
Post 2017 almost every coin emulated the BTC chart. We observed progressively weaker bounces followed by a final capitulation event. Most alts today are on a similar path.
Most will continue going lower and capitulate before BTC heads for new all time highs. Strong projects with engaged communities and solid tokenomics may not experience a capitulation event. However, I do expect most to continue their down trend.
Predictions
BTC takes off sooner than most expect. H2 we see a major momentum shift. I lean on q4-1 for a break out of range.
Tokenomics becomes increasingly important for newer projects. We’ll begin seeing token value more aligned with fundamental growth. The successful models will proliferate and be adopted by other projects.
More regulatory push back from governments resulting in a massive migration of innovators and investors. Countries with liberal crypto policies will benefit greatly from this realignment. Unlike the previous decades money can be sent instantly and freely across borders. Also, web 3 workers can operate remotely and employers rarely care about geography. Net result, most nations will liberalize their policies or fall behind as they experience the biggest brain drain in history.
EVMOS Season
Due to network issues the initial launch was delayed. Now with the launch imminent numerous projects are deploying on EVMOS and issuing airdrops. I’ve stated in past videos and tweets that users should stake a little OSMO, ATOM, SCRT, and JUNO. During the first airdrop I also added EVMOS to this list. I speculated that new projects launching on EVMOS would airdrop to stakers. This is now confirmed as new projects begin releasing their airdrop details.
If you haven’t claimed your EVMOS make sure to do so by visiting this site.
There’s airdrops for both the Metamask and Keplr wallets. This medium post explains how to redeem the airdrop in both wallets. Once you’ve received the airdrop you can proceed to staking your EVMOS tokens.
Below I’ve compiled a list of a few projects who have shared the criteria for airdrop eligibility. It’s very likely some have already taken a few snap shots so you may not be green lighted for those.
Diffusion - Automated market maker
UNI holders and addresses that got rekt by gas fees interacting with Uniswap. Snap shot taken 12/31/21.
OSMO stakers that delegated to @binaryholdings and @frensvalidator. Snapshots taken from 2/17 to 2/28.
EVMOS stakers and EVMOS LPs on Osmosis.
Community member who support the projects early and LPs on the Diffusion dex.
Coslend - Money market
Evmos community users will be given airdrops for using partner projects. This typically involves interacting with a protocol or bridge. Here’s a medium post where they provide detailed instructions.
SpaceFi - Cross-chain DEX, NFT, Starter and DAO
You’ll have to first complete this authentication process.
EVMOS stakers post mainnet launch.
Transfer EVM assets into EVMOS Eco Via EVM bridge ( like Nomad).
Convert IBC assets into Evmos Eco via IBC/ERC20 module after Evmos mainnet relaunch.
I have an entire channel in my Discord dedicated to Cosmos. I routinely post new airdrops and updates. I encourage you guys to join and following along. Lastly, I produced this video recently to help you guys navigate and understand the EVMOS eco.
Solana NFTs
This is one of the few segments of the market that’s still hot. FTX is pouring their massive gains into marketing and Solana NFTs have been one of the many beneficiaries. In my Discord I stated that each new wave of investors coming into the NFT scene will determine the next blue chips. In the past few months we’ve seen Cets on Creck, DeGods, and Okay Bears go on incredible runs. To me this indicates new capital pouring into the eco and communities coalescing around NFT collections. These collections may cement themselves as blue chips but in my opinion only the following collections have done so to date.
Most recently Okay bears went from a floor of 10 SOL to a peak of 200 SOL within days. The Solana eco has never seen any collection make its ascent this fast. It’s too early to give this collection the blue chip title because we’ve seen other collections fall from glory months following their peak. For example, Thugbirdz peaked at 200 before falling to 20.
This buyer represents a DAO and has been buying up Solana NFTs for the last month.
He has a lot of fire power and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. I credit most of the current market mania to this entity. His buys are supporting many floors and should he decide to sell the floors will melt. Give him and Solbigbrain a follow. They both can heavily influence the markets with their public commentary and large purchases.
My focus on Solana has mostly been on GameFi. I have exposure to the following projects.
I’ll cover these in an upcoming video and/or write threads on them. Unfortunately the market is focused on PFP collections and as a result there’s very little interest in GameFi NFTs.
While waiting for these collections to get more attention I’m getting numerous airdrops. Often times these airdrops become more valuable as the collection’s floor price rise. For example I got free tokens to mint Degen Trash Pandas because I was holding Degenerate Ape (DAA) NFTs. As the floor of DAA rose to 100 SOL my Degen Trash Pandas hit 9 SOL. This means I essentially got 9 SOL per DAA I held.
In the context of GameFi the items I’m getting airdropped today should become more valuable as the game’s user base grows. Let’s take a look at CatchKing to help illustrate my point. They are giving users who send their CatchKing NFTs out on winter expeditions Gachapon coupons. These coupons can be redeemed for items.
A few of the items like the genesis eggs are selling for 2 SOL plus. This is ahead of the games release and before we’re given any details. Now let’s briefly shift to Grim Syndicate who’s floor went from 2 SOL to 20. Prior to getting I got airdropped items for holding Grims. The floor recently went parabolic as the Grim collection grew in popularity. If I still had my airdrops they would be worth over $1k today.
The biggest downside of holding in this environment is the potential for a market wide capitulation event. In that setting you would be better off holding cash vs staking your NFTs for tokens and airdrops. Personally I favor using a portion of my passive income to accumulate and stake. I routinely check into the respective Discords and follow the Twitter accounts for updates. Unless I’m unhappy with the direction of the project I plan to hold most bags until the games are launched. Conversely, investors can use of the many catalysts to derisk and cover their cost basis. For example, staking typically results in the price rising days ahead of the event.
In addition to airdrops I expect most GameFi projects to provide breeding opportunities. Breeding allows for market dynamics to expand the supply of NFT collections to accommodate new users. For instance when there’s a huge influx of users the price of the NFTs will go up. NFT holders are incentivized to exhaust resources on breeding because they’re rewarded with a generous profit for doing so. Once supply exceeds demand the prices will fall and breeding will become less profitable. Additionally, we’ll get opportunities to rent our NFTs to guilds and independent players. This creates two opportunities for NFT holders to generate additional income. Passively through renting out NFTs and actively by breeding when the user base is expanding.
Stablecoin Yields
This isn’t an endorsement. I’m simply highlighting a few farms with above market yields on stablecoins. In many cases the yield is pricing in risk or low TVL.
MM.Finance MUSD-3MM 27% APR, $15M TVL
Voltage Finance atUST-fUSD-USDT 118% APR, $184K TVL
Beets.Fi USDC-DEI 27% APR, $34M
North Korean hacker groups have become very active in the last couple months. Never go all into any one protocol.